原文摘要
Application development without programmers
This book by James Martin published in 1982, includes the following in the preface:
Applications development did not change much for 20 years, but now a new wave is crashing in. A rich diversity of nonprocedural techniques and languages are emerging. As these languages improve, they promise to change the entire fabric of DP development.
This means a major change for many of the personnel involved in DP, from the DP manager to the junior programmer. DP personnel have always welcomed new hardware and software, but it is not as easy to accept fundamental changes in the nature of one's job. Many DP professionals and, not surprisingly, programmers will instinctively resist some of the methods described in this book.
(I had to look up DP - it stands for Data Processing, and was a common acronym for general IT work up until the 1980s.)
I enjoy they way this echoes with today's fears of the impact of AI-assisted programming on developer careers!
The early 80s were a wild time for computing:
Unfortunately, the winds of change are sometimes irreversible. The continuing drop in cost of computers has now passed the point at which computers have become cheaper than people. The number of programmers available per computer is shrinking so fast that most computers in the future will have to work at least in part without programmers.
<p><small></small>Via <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@codythecoder/video/7526998886221663543">@codythecoder on TikTok</a></small></p>
<p>Tags: <a href="https://simonwillison.net/tags/careers">careers</a>, <a href="https://simonwillison.net/tags/ai">ai</a>, <a href="https://simonwillison.net/tags/ai-assisted-programming">ai-assisted-programming</a></p>
进一步信息揣测
- 技术变革中的职业抵抗：行业内部人士（如资深程序员和管理者）往往会本能抵制可能威胁其职位的新技术（如1980年代的非过程化语言、如今的AI编程），这种抵抗源于对工作本质改变的恐惧，而非技术本身优劣。
- 成本驱动的自动化趋势：计算机成本低于人力成本时（如1980年代的数据处理领域），企业会强制转向无程序员参与的开发模式，这一经济规律至今适用，暗示当前AI编程工具的普及是资本选择的必然结果。
- 历史循环的行业教训：40年前“程序员人均计算机数量锐减”的预言与当前AI取代初级开发者的讨论高度重合，表明技术迭代中的职业危机具有周期性，资深从业者可能通过转型（如管理/架构设计）而非抵抗存活。
- 非公开的技术过渡内幕：书中提到的“非过程化语言”在当年实际推广中可能遭遇了企业内部的隐性抵制（如故意降低工具预算、培训缺失），类似今天部分公司对AI工具的表面支持与私下限制。
- 行业术语的隐蔽含义：“DP（数据处理）”作为过时术语，暗示了IT领域权力结构的变迁——从以数据处理部门为核心，到开发者主导的现代软件工程，这种转变常伴随组织内资源争夺的暗流。
- 技术乐观主义的陷阱：作者预言“计算机将无需程序员”时未提及过渡期的混乱（如低代码工具产生的技术债），这类未明言的实践教训在当前AI编程浪潮中同样被主流宣传忽略。